Monday, 1 February 2016

2016 Property Outlook

Property prices always go up. Don't try to time the market. It's time in the market which matters. Below is the property market trend for non-landed for the last 30 years since 1975. Let's take a look and try to make a rough guess of when the property market will hit bottom and start climbing back up. 
For the last 3 years, property prices have been going down slowly and steady. Singaporeans keep thinking the prices will continue to drop. So what would the property market be like in 2016? Will it continue to drop? Looking at the chart, yes. it probably would drop further. 

Looking at the chart, when the market falls steeply, it only last for 2-3 years. However, when it falls steadily, the period last from 4-5years. Reason for fall? The period it falls steeply is mainly because of recession, bad economy. The recent fall is due to cooling measures being implemented. Below i've drawn a red line which roughly touches the bottom of each cycle. The chart is marked till Q32015. Looking at the chart, prices is very likely to continue to fall this 2016 and perhaps even carry through mid of 2017(if nothing unexpected happens) before it starts to pick up. Just like all past steady falls which last 4-5years.
So, using this chart as a forecast, 2016 and 2017 is indeed a good time to buy when the property market is down.